About a month ago in the thread about whether the Wii would hit 20M by end of 2007 I calculated (using the assumption that the 1.8M monthly production started beginning of August) that there were at least 1.4M wiis stockpiled (being very conservative as I wanted a likely strict minimum).
Now I have used that number and weekly sales minus weekly production to see how much stockpile is left using my low end estimate and got about 290k left, which combined with 410k a week would put it at 700k for this week worldwide, which is clearly not enough as Ioi indicated that NA alone was over that at the beginning of last week.
Although I did give myself a 500k margin of error either way depending on when the production increase started and how many Wiis were remaining unsold in Europe which would bring this number to 1.2 millions I do believe that it is still not enough as if 600k were sold in NA on Sunday last week I expect 800k-1.1M for the week in NA alone as if I was Nintendo and planning on breaking a weekly record I would aim for 1M (hence 1.1M to have a margin of error with some shipments delayed/stockpiled by stores...) but they may have come short (hence the 800 lowest bound as Walmart was said to have many shipments during the week, contributing greatly to the 200k in 6 days).
As for Europe and Japan I expect them to have similar number to last week as while Nintendo might have diverted some in NA it is also the last big week in Europe for the year and the start of big weeks in Japan so I expect them to have 300-400k in Europe/Others and 200-300k in Japan (also using The Source preliminary Japanese data hardware guesstimation) for a combined total of at least 500k.
Those likely minimum 500k plus 850k-1.1M for NA gives us a range of 1.35M-1.7M (1.7 if the upper bound is reached in two of the three territories).
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Before posting this I chose the check the frontpage again and it says 448k for Other alone which using The Source's Japan estimation of 180-200k (IIRC) would bring the non-NA sales to about 630k-650k and combined with my estimation of 850-1.1M for NA gives 1.48M-1.75M as a likely range. Of course since I use the Other data this doesn't count as my prediction which stands at 1.35-1.7M but it is interesting none the less.
"I do not suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it"
