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Kinect is going to sell extremely well for one of the same reasons as the 360 S....many people want new hardware.  It's going on five years since the launch of the 360 and there are a lot of gamers looking to purchase something new.  With this console cycle showing no ending anytime soon, people will purchase because it's something different to mess around with, even if it turns out to be mediocre.

I also think Kinect is going to break in to the mainstream cosnumer this holiday as well.  Marketing and word of mouth  hype can go an awfully long way in making a product a must have holiday gift.