| dunno001 said: Hrm... I think both sides of the camp are overstating system boosts for their games. I'll look at the big 2: Halo Reach and Gran Turismo 5. Reach: With both Halo 3 and ODST being out already for the system, I think fans of the series are already on board. Ordinarilly, I'd say that I could still see a decent boost for the Reach system bundle, but with bundles being done for both Halo 3 and ODST before, I really think that it will be mostly muted, as I imagine that most of the diehards already have one of the prior-branded Halo consoles. Sure, a few will get this bundle, but I don't think it'll do more than a 10% boost, assuming no other factors. GT5: I hate to break it to people, but yes, the interest in real car racing sims is down some. It's not floored, to the point where I'd say GT5 would only get 5 million, but I don't see the 11 million plus games in the series being comparable. The system has a lower install base, and I do think that some of the fans waiting for GT5 gave up and went to Forza. In addition, it's been so long since Prologue came out, that I'd not be surprised if some people feel that even when GT5 comes out, it'll be "yesterday's news." I see maybe 7-8 million total for GT5, 9 if things go well, but I don't see 10. And with a majority of the GT fans getting the system for Prologue, that again, the system boost will be minimal. Much to the "hardcore" chagrin, I do think the better system movers will be Kinect and Move. And this is where I give the edge to Kinect. Regardless of personal opinions, regardless of whether it's right or not, Move WILL be compared to the Wiimote. And in that comparison, to the "casual" group, Move will lose. Kinect is a lot harder to go with, however, I do think that with the better marketting behind it, it has a better chance to succeed. That's not to say that the Move will flop, though- the wider variety of games supporting it may give it a wider breadth of appeal. But I think that wider group will be more inclusive of its existing ownership. So, back to the actual topic. Here's how I'm seeing things break down for the entire holiday season: Japan: PS3 easily, by an order of magnitude (10x). America: 360, fairly easily, about a ratio of 7:5. Others: 360, but only slightly. I see the difference being less than 10%, possibly as close as 5% Worldwide: Japan's huge PS3 margin will wipe the small 360 margin I see in others. This leaves only the US lead on 360s keeping it ahead of the PS3 worldwide. I'll say about 15% over the PS3 is where sales will be at the end of the holiday season worldwide. |
I mostly agree except for the others region. Others mostly favor the PS3 and with GT5 I think PS3 will win Others.
