It all depends on the holiday season, which will depend on how agressive MS is, and I predict Kinect is going to get a lot of advertisment.
You factor in
1) Kinect at a attractive price now IMHO at $150 since it comes with a game, when the presumption was it would be $150 without a game.
2) Arcade bundle with Kinect at $300
3) Arcade S launching in just a few weeks
4) Halo Reach, Fable 3 and a overall steallar holiday line up.
5) Agressive marketing by MS, and perhaps another return of the $100 arcade (after Wal-Mart gift card and such) come the holidays.
6) People looking to swap out their old 360's via "upgrading to the Slim", consdiering RROD there is still plenty of customers for MS to double dip in.
Sony still has Move and the launch of Gran Turismo as well as a equally solid third party offering, and there are still people who want to get a PS3 by this Christmas for the games and of course blu-ray player.
Though if Kinect ends up hitting it big and becomes the Christmas toy to get? MS could be looking at some rather huge sales that should recover the sales ground lost to Sony since their price cut slim revision.
It's just that simple.
