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Well we see our first Kinect game so far on the pre-order charts and it doesn't look like its dong too bad at all so far.

Halo Reach will have a massive first week.  A couple things to remember is that MW2 launched closer to the holidays which also aided its pre-order numbers and Reach hasn't had any mainstream television advertising yet.  Still I think it will launch at slightly less than MW2's first week.