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They should try to release it this year. I'm sure other manufacturers are already working on portable 3D movie players and eager to release their products before Nintendo. That could harm the 3DS hype. 

Their only real concern are the games, probably. We don't know for how long 3rd party developers have had their hands on the hardware, but if we assume it wasn't before 2010, the time frame is too short. And Nintendo probably want to release the 3DS with proper 3rd party support. 

So that's my guess: This year if they release it with a handful of 1st party games only. March 2011 if they want 3rd parties from launch.