In the modern (post market collapse) videogame market there have been 8 distinct market leaders; the NES, SNES, Playstation, PS2, Wii, Gameboy, Gameboy Advance and Nintendo DS. Being that 2 of these market leaders can be considered market creators (NES and Gameboy) 6 of these market leaders had previous generation market leaders that they replaced and 4 of these systems were the follow up console of the previous generation market leader. When you consider that the two times the market leader switched place 1 console was released 18 months after that generation’s market leading console, and the second time the console released at $250 to $350 more than the market leading console did.
Why I bring this up is that if Nintendo releases a home console at the same time or a year before their competition releases a system, selling between $200 and $300, the momentum provided by being the market leading console in this generation gives them a massive advantage in the follow up generation. Unless Sony and Microsoft release a more compelling system at a very reasonable price and launching at the same time or earlier than Nintendo’s next system, Nintendo will probably be the next generations market leading console.
I acknowledge that there are a lot of "If, ands or buts" in my analysis; but I think the next generation will play out in a way that works to Nintendo’s advantage.
