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Personally i dont feel it will sell... but then again, im not casual. And most of the people in here aren't casuals.

But, trying to look at it from an outside POV, i'd say the PS3 image and price is the reason why it won't sell. Its not a kiddy console, its not something you just go out and purchase for the sole reason of playing casual games.  It's more likely that it will sell to non-ps3 owners that are already looking into purchasing one because of existing games, and the Move might help convince their girlfriend on why they should spend $399 on a games console.

Thats my honest opinion.