Thwe Wii will pass 360 by 4/1/08 in NA

[Sullla]

tarheel91 said:

You're forgetting that Wii production has been seriously upped.  Even if NA only got 1/3 of Wiis made during that time, that's only 1mil Wiis per month.  Nintendo is obviously making a lot more than that now.

Oh, I'm aware of that, believe me. But as I explained in the previous post, even assuming VERY generous sales over the next two weeks to finish 2007, the Wii would still need to double its North American sales in Q1 2008 to pass the 360. That's simply not realistic. None of the consoles are going to see gigantic increases in sales next year; they should all sell about the same as this year, or possibly a little better.

More numbers for what the Wii would need to do to pass the 360 by April:

1.32m behind entering 2008 + 780k (projected 360 sales in Q1 from last year) = 2.1m units needed

2.1m / 13 weeks in Q1 = 162k weekly sales (America only)
2.1m / 3 months in Q1 = ~700k monthly sales (America only)

Those numbers might look doable, if you're only thinking in terms of holiday sales. But go back and look at non-holiday sales data from the old charts here. The Wii wasn't even remotely close to 700k monthly sales (again, America only!) at any point in time this year until November. Try looking at some of the old NPD data for a good comparison. I'd dig it up myself, but I don't have the time.

I'm quite bullish on the Wii myself, just trying to keep things in perspective here. Assuming that the Wii will continue to sell 700k per month, in America alone, is not very likely to come true in January and February.