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kitler53 on 13 July 2010
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Hyruken said:
kitler53 said:
welshbloke said:
Ping_ii said:

LOL it's like the "Uncharted 2 won't break 2m" all over again with GT5,the same skeptics just never learns.......

OT: GT5 over 100k pre orders has 17 weeks to go in U.S with 10k added this week and as we get closer to release pre orders for this game will increase(Like always with most of high profile games LOOK @ God of war3,COD etc.). As for EU well LOL can't even imagine how well it will do there.

I am not doubting it will sell well I am doubting the order magnitude of greatness being expected of it. GT5 is no Uncharted 2 as GT5 has predictions ranging from 8m the low end to 14m the high end I just happen to believe that the current software bias favours the low end.

yeah, well GT is tracking just a smidge under MW: black ops which means GT should at least open around 1M for the americas.  not bad considering GT games historiacally have always done best in japan/others.



I don't mean this in a nasty way so please don't take it that way but your waaaaay out on what you just said there.

For a starters Black Ops is tracking at x2 what GT is. This week is GT's 16th week until release, in Pre-order article they made a mistake it is not 17. Black op's has just got to it's 18th week, meaning GT has 2 weeks less to go then MW'BO's. Black op's has 200k pre-orders and GT has 106k. That is a big gap when you compare it to low numbers. If GT had say 1.5m pre-orders and Black op's had 1.6m Pre-orders then you could say it was tracking around the same, but they are not, far from it.

GT is tracking way below titles that have gone on to have a 1m pre-orders opening in US. This does not mean it is impossible it just means as the weeks go on at it's current rate it will have to make up for it in it's final weeks. As we can see from Giggs chart MW2 had 713k pre-orders in it's last 3 weeks prior to release. But prior to that period it still had 1.1m pre-orders. That shows the scale of popularity for the title. Right now the same thing is happening with Halo Reach. If we look through the history of GT games in americas we see the best 1st week a GT game had was GT4 which sold 770k in it's first week. For GT to break that 1m mark it must get 900k more pre-orders or average from now 56k a week. Which is almost 5x what it is doing now. That is a tall tall order. Not impossible. We will see in the next 4 weeks or so what kind of opening GT5 is likely to get.

Also Japan is the weakest region for GT games.


correct me if i'm wrong but..

9 Call of Duty: Black Ops PS3 18 14,997 109,756
10 Gran Turismo 5 PS3 17 10,092 106,390

so gran turismo 5 is just a smidge under CoD: black ops.  with the one week head start it is behind by around 20 k or basically 85%.  on the ps3 MW2 sold around 1.6M (sales not preorders) in the americas week one.  okay, maybe it's a leap of faith but 85% of 1.6M is 1.36M so a GT opening of around a million in the americas really isn't that far fetched.  europe and japan will together do at least the same as the americas so a opening week in the ballpark of 2 maybe 3 million is not out of the question. 

sure, halo will do better but not a bad opening for GT.