Which of the three will be first out of the gate next gen?

[Sullla]

souixan said:
It's quite simple actually. You use the popularity of last gen and keep that popularity hot by coming out first. It spikes people who liked the Wii and technophiles who like "super graphics" to want to purchase it. Casuals looking for a low end system will still purchase Wii people looking to move on from the Wii can purchase the next gen instalation and technophiles who wanted the PS3 for higher end will look to nintendos new system.(Not all but a good enough ammount) or it could end up terrible lol

That sounds nice, but it doesn't work so well in practice. Sega tried this exact strategy in the 1990s, and it backfired on them. By making the lifespan of your console too short, you run the risk of burning consumers who invested in your product, only to find that support was being discontinued in favor of a newer, more powerful system. Besides, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense either. Why cannibalize your own success if you're dominating the market by releasing an unproven new console?

On topic, either Microsoft or Sony will launch the first eighth generation console. They both run business models that require them to dominate the market in order to make a profit; neither can be content to sit in a distant second place behind the Wii. One or both will try to get a jump on the field by launching their new system ahead of schedule, hoping to strike it rich and duplicate the PS2 model. Nintendo will run a real risk of repeating the mistake they made in the 1990s: sitting on their laurels with a dominant console (NES/SNES) and letting the competition beat them to the punch with improved technology.