Microsoft is poised to be first. They could squeeze the five year minimum reasonably, while making either competitor look silly for releasing simultaneously for a four-year cycle. Or they could stretch it to 6 years, and have the 360 seem more successful than the five-year competitor, while sacrificing the Xbox 3 slightly. The more likely of the other two consoles to push Microsoft into pre-emtively launching is Sony, simply because they're going to want to end this generation as badly as Microsoft wanted to end the last one. The Wii is the least likely to see a successor. Although I can imagine Sony releasing before Microsoft, I think it's unlikely. I don't think there's even the remotest chance that Nintendo will be the first out the gate next gen, however.
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