The Official May 2010 NPD Thread (Data for May 2-May 29)

[postofficebuddy]

shanbcn said:

postofficebuddy said:

kowenicki said:

shanbcn said:

AW sold just 145k, way overtracked here.

 

http://www.joystiq.com/2010/07/02/npd-on-the-red-dead-alan-wake-and-split-second-retail-showdown/

How is it WAY overtracked?

its at 210k for May here including the whole Americas not just US.  NPD is US only.

Might be a bit overtracked granted... but way?  no.

Depends on how you define 'WAY'. Following the standard algorithm 145k USA should be approximately 160k Americas. Over a 30% overtrack. Admitedly that can vary somewhat depending on Canadian performance as evidenced by GOW3 first shipment of 250k (I'm still waiting for adjustments ioi), but I doubt it's any higher than 175k which would still be a relatively large 20% overtrack. Not to mention that 360 game performance would be more heavily skewed towards USA anyways since the system is cracked and Latin American sales are heavily pirated, which obviously isn't an issue with PS3 software.

I think GOW3 numbers are almost spot on.

I've explained this several times in the past. And this isn't a fanboy argument, it's simple mathmatics. First NPD put it at 1.1 million. VGC has the first 3 weeks at 1.125 million. I can't seem to find a link for the Canadian shipment number but IIRC even Source cited the number in a news article so I would assume it's reliable. If the first shipment was 250k then I think 150k-200k in the first 3 weeks is basically guaranteed and I made an assumption of about 50k-100k Latin American sales based on the seemingly high popularity of the series down there and lack of piracy. So first 3 weeks should be more like 1.3-1.4 million. We overtracked slightly in April but only marginally and most likely ever so marginally in May but it's probably still more skewed away from USA anyway so the algorithm is probably less than 87%. I also suspect it's undertracked in EMEAA if it's had 180k shipped to mainland Asia not including Korea. In all likelyhood it's probably undertracked by about 300k-400k. I would assume the only reason it hasn't been adjusted yet is because ioi wants to get official shipment data from Santa Monica. When is their fiscal report anyway?