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I think the sales will be MUCH lower. Look at the E3 - no one cared about MS and Sonys Motion-Controllers all media looked only at the 3DS.

The casuals will not see any advantages in kinect or move, and they will see that a Wii with M and two Wii-Sports-Games is much cheaper.

I think kinect and move will be hardware and software saleswise flops and the software sales will not nearly reach the numbers you wrote in your list.