Here's the 3 million sellers as I see it. Games which which may or may not sell 3 million, but at least have a chance, are stared. All 3 platforms: Madden, Guitar Hero*, Need For Speed (I'm assuming they'll be one this year as always), FIFA, Pro Evo (are these two football games confirmed for everything? I assume they will be). 360 + PS3: GTA4 PS3 exclusive: Ratchet*, MGS4. 360 exclusive: Halo Wii exclusive: Mario Galaxy, Smash Bros., Wii Health*, Wii Music*, Metroid*, Mario + Sonic*, MySims*. Assassin's Creed, Killzone, Too Human, Mass Effect, Lair and all these others people are naming won't get up towards 3 million simply because all of them target a young male audience, who already has established franchises they're going for this year in Halo, GTA, MGS, SSBB and Metroid. Maybe one of those games could be a breakout 3-million seller like Gears of War was last year, if only there weren't a whole bunch of established IP with 2+ million sales potential playing to that audience already. The way I see it, the Wii's lineup is stacked. It has two sure-fire hits, it has the continuing appeal of Sports/Play, and it has a large amount of potential breakout hits. PS3's biggest exclusive is likely to move to next year, and Ratchet never reached 3 million sales even on PS2. XBox hasn't proved its ability to move 3 million of anything except Halo and now Gears, and won't move 3 million of a non-Halo game in a Halo launch year. I probably missed some games in there, though.
"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."
Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.
