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Without a doubt:

Sequel (of a beloved game) - There have been few sequels to a favorite series of mine that have not satisfied me.  They do not even have to surmount their predecessors, they just need to entertain me (and for the most part they always do)

Reboot (of a beloved game) - I have never once been upset with a Reboot of any game I enjoyed (let alone 3 reboots...aka Persona 3).  

New IP - These can easily defeat the two above (this gen Demon's Souls for instance) but they have a much greater chance than the above 2 at disappointing me.