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I would have thought the rabid PS3 userbase were more likely to buy a second console or upgrade to a more stylish version than the slightly more practical (read poor) and less devoted 360 users.  The trade-ins will all eventually be sold unless the group mentioned above honestly believe they will be put in a mass grave somewhere.  Would a widening of the 110m sw gap 360 has over PS3 be proof of that?  Of course not.  Believe it or not this will have a very positive effect on the no. of 360s in use.

I'll be using my old box which works perfectly and was one of the best purchases I've made.  If an unused arcade goes for $150 what do Gamestop think they can sell the old ones for?  $125?  They'll be selling them at cost if they're' still paying $100.  Expect an adjustment there.  They'll move after the 'new' arcade stock clears out I guess.  Any chance M$ are taking a page from their competitors and 'managing' the supply channels or did they underestimate demand this badly? 

Guesses of 1m plus first month don't look quite so wild all of a sudden.  Where are those nos.?