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HappySqurriel on 26 June 2010
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Joelcool7 said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
Nintendogamer said:

If 3DS comes out in 2011 in all regions then yes DS will have one last Christmas boost.


I wouldn't bet it will be the last, 3DS won't be very affordable for the first years, while with a price cut DS could become the console of choice even for the most casual users, BTW it offers a lot of SW also for people not liking videogames in their classic meaning. And Nintendo doesn't obviously want to temporarily lose mainstream and entry level markets waiting for 3DS to become cheaper, when instead it can furtherly widen its penetration into the entry level segment. DS could rule even another 2 years before being regularly overtaken in weekly sales by 3DS, and after that, its sales could reemain appealing enough to make Ninty let it alive some more years (but this depends on Ninty strategy more than on sales alone).

I expect from DS 160M lifetime very easily, 180M with little more effort and even 200M or more if Nintendo decides to give it a long lifecycle with enough releases to keep it healthy.


3DS will be affordable right out of the gate. Nintendo never launches platforms that are too expensive. I'd say lowest price 199$ highest price 249$. That may not be as cheap as the DS will become but it will be cheap enough for most consumers to purchase. Right now DSi's go for 179.99$ so expect 3DS to be slightly more expensive but if consumers are buying DSi's then they will buy 3DS's.

DS is already the console of choice for most casual gamers. I can't see the DS appealing to many more non-gamers or even hardcore gamers. A substantial price cut may boost sales giving the DS one last big year but I don't see it maintaining that long.

Seriously you expect another 70-million DS's to sell during its life span? Not going to happen I think your first estimate of 160-million is probubly more likely. Sales will be boosted by the price cuts and software will probubly keep getting pumped out but I can't see the DS selling half of its marketshare over the next few years.

I'd say we can use the GBA for referance, many thought with the Micro and price cuts that the GBA would continue to sell well for a few more years. Well guess what they were wrong the GBA slipped down a slippery slope pretty fast. Now of course the GBA didn't have the user base the DS does but the DS could possibly outlive the PS2. But 200-million is unreasonable!


His estimate may be optimistic, but it is not that unrealistic. The announcement of the 3DS will not have too much of an impact on DS sales for the rest of the year; and over the next few years the DS will continue selling because of how inexpensive it (and its games) will become. While there is (almost) no attention paid to them, there are more late-adopters than early adopters; and they will favour a $99 handheld with countless excellent games for $19 over the brand new $200 system with few high quality games (where the library is very expensive). To this day people still buy PS2 systems and games even though it was replaced almost 4 years ago.