Reasonable said:
CGI-Quality said:
Things will get interesting for the next few weeks, particularly for the Xbox 360 (slimmer console/price clearances on older models). It'll likely outsell the PS3 for a good portion of the Summer, with a price cut on the Arcade and Slimmer 360 models of $50 in the Fall, to coincide with Kinect's offering ($149 Arcade without Kinect/$349 Slim 360 including Kinect - to keep it $50-$150 cheaper than the PS3's Move Bundle and the arcade $150 cheaper than a regular $299 PS3), while Kinect will probably sell for $100 on it's own (I've always doubted that $150 price). It'll be up YoY, while things will probably be flat or just a tad above for the PS3 and Wii.
They'll probably be some other bundles of sorts for the 360 & PS3 - $349 Halo Reach Themed Xbox 360 Slim Bundle (possibly two controllers bringing it to $399, but it'll be without Kinect) being one and a $349 GT5 PS3 Bundle (also being without Move).
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It'll be interesting to keep an eye on 360 HW vs SW sales and ratios to get an idea how much is upgrading vs new purchase. I'm quite amazed at how many 360 owners (either from evidence such as pre-orders on trade-ins) to many of my own friends are going to get a Slim. Of course the same thing happened with the PS3, but I think we might see an even high percentage for the 360.
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It's hard to gauge this, as most repeat buyers still recirculate their old systems (traded in, resold themselves or given to friends/family) which keeps tie ratios healthy. Iwata's actually talked about this phenomenon before with regards to DS... the "core" buy each iterative update, but they recirculate their old system to people who might not necessarily go out and buy a "new" system (but still may purchase new games).
