No. I have said many times. The casuals dont play Mario Galaxy, etc. They play the minigame stuff and Wii sports.
Thats why M$ focused on those types of games. They were advanced types of those games. And much more interactive. They will definately steel Wii sales this holiday.
The problem MS have with Kinect I think, is that whilst Nintendo have a lot of the casual crowd titles, they also have a number core titles that use Wii and a number of bridging titles.
There were no games that bridge both core and casual crowds like NSMB on Wii and no core titles for Kinect so at least early on, a lot of the core 360 owners won't bother with Kinect (especially if the rumoured prices are true), and for 3rd-party's, a lot of their games are going to struggle as devs bring out games in the same genres.
Looking at the Kinect games at release, many of them are in the same genres (sports, party, fitness etc.) that are pre-dominantly bought by casuals. At launch, these are all going to be competing for the casual market meaning most will fail, especially with the higher price of HD budgets relative to Wii development.
Nintendo on the other hand showed lots of core, bridging and casual titles for the Wii and showed off some amazing titles in development for 3DS, not to mention the amazing tech that'll be in the handheld.