Firstly may i ask how you got the 1.4m PS3 slims were sold in 1st month figure? Does this number include the phasing out of the older PS3 models which were at a big discount?
Which makes predicting these numbers hard. Because if you mean 360 slim itself then will we have numbers tracking those? I didn't think tracking data tracked the individual types of consoles?
So if we are talking just about slims then personally i don't think it will get this huge boost that some are predicting. Obviously the first couple of weeks will see a boost from the current numbers but i don't think that will make too much of a difference. So i think maybe first week 150k, slims worldwide, 2nd 130k, 3rd 115k and 4th 100k. So a little over 500k for the slims.
But what will make the overall 360 numbers huge will be the price drop for the old models. The arcade is basically £100 here in UK. That will sell by the truck loads. So if we are to believe there are supposedly 2m 360's stock piled (if we look at Microsofts recent shipment figures) then every single one of those old consoles will sell and sell fast.
So for the rest of the world i think it is hard to predict. But for the first month in states with 360 numbers overall i think we are going to see a gigantic sales month.
Right now 360 is selling about 50k a week in US. Just before 360 had it's last price cut at the start of september 2008 it was also selling 50k a week in US. Soon as it had a price cut it jumped in sales by 95% to sell 98k a week. With the introduction of the slim and the price cut i expect those numbers to be repeated.
So for first week in US i would expect 100k sales of all the 360 units combined, 2nd week 90k, 3rd 80k and 4th 75k. So around 350k for 360 for the month in US.
The rest of the world is too difficult to predict. UK obviously will sell a lot but outside of there i doubt we will see too much of a change.
