Analyst believes Wii capable of selling 3.6 million consoles a month

[Mountie]

Avinash_Tyagi said:

Mountie said:
Avinash,

You've been around long enough to know that you can't compare Wii first year to PS2 first year properly since the PS2 launched in Japan first:

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii®1=All&cons2=PS2®2=All&cons3=PS2®3=Japan&weeks=156

By the slopes of the graphs you can tell that the Wii is selling at approximately the same rate as the PS2 in its first year once the rest of the world kicked in. True, the Wii was supply constrained whereas the PS2 wasn't. But you can't say the Wii will double because the PS2 doubled, because the PS2 DIDN'T! Look at the slopes, they are the same.

This is an interesting graph showing how the Wii is currently doing in Japan:

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii®1=All&cons2=PS2®2=All&cons3=Wii®3=Japan&weeks=156

Yes that's true that PS2 launched earlier in Japan than in other regions, but that is by and large irrelevant since in every region Wii is leading over PS2 sales over the same time period, which shows that Wii demand and production is higher (Since Wii was able to enter the markets much faster and sell in all three at a higher rate)

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii®1=Japan&cons2=PS2®2=Japan&cons3=X360®3=------&weeks=58 

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii®1=America&cons2=PS2®2=America&cons3=X360®3=------&weeks=58

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii®1=Total+Other&cons2=PS2®2=Total+Other&cons3=X360®3=------&weeks=58

So while its true that PS2's doubling was more due to adding more regions than anything, but even taking PS2 out of the equation we still see the rise in DS sales which does by and large double as well in its second year

 

Yes, I've kicked over one strawman (the PS2) now to take the DS.......

The Wii is selling as well as the DS in its 2nd year (which is phenomenal obviously!!!) But for it to double, it would sell pretty much as fast as the DS is selling right now! Just looking at price alone do you think that's possible?!!? The DS costs like half as much!

For those reasons, its safe to assume that a 50% increase is reasonable but 100% isn't without either a price drop or new colours. Especially since the Wii has more competition than the DS.