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"And I don’t want to get in their heads, they are great business people, they run their company well, my view is this is something they should do." |
As an analyst he is supposed to be getting into the heads of the business people, to understand the way they think so he can make predictions about what they'll do and investors can decide based on those predictions which stocks to pick. Nintendo doesn't do the "us too" anymore. When Sony and Microsoft decided their market this gen was the same as last gen, "da l33t gam3rz", and Nintendo said "been there, done that, we'll just market to everybody else" and lo and behold they've made mega moolah, that was a pretty good clue that they didn't need to do the "us too".
PS3 and XBox peripherals, by themselves, are not a threat to the Wii. Let's look at what's left in the market. The "top tier" gamers have already bought their PS3 / XBox360 and dutifully scorn the Wii for not being superior. That market is already saturated. Growing prepubescent boys will fill in as new blood to market to, but Nintendo gave up that market so there isn't a threat of losing that market there because they already lost it. The segment of that market nintendo did capture was the "nontechnology" gamers -- those that play games for the fun of it, not for the wow factor. That's a small group, as is the "nintendo fan club". Significant enough to throw tidbits of games that way, but not a primary target market.
Nintendo's market is "everybody else", so let's look at the threat posed to that market. The everybody else market is filled with nongamers. That's people who don't give a rat'sass about the E3, global gaming expo, etc. A large percentage of those people have heard about the Wii when it came out because it was talked about in the mainstream media. It became a part of popular culture. They aren't going to know about the PS3 Move, or the XBox 360 Natal. They probably don't even know what a PS3 or XBox 360 even is unless they had to buy one for their pimply sons. So unless the mainstream media is suddenly fascinated by yet another "us too" device, I really don't see any threat to that market.
Another market segment may be the latecomers. Those who put off buying a Wii because it was too expensive. Likely, they won't buy a PS3 / XBox 360 accessories for the same reason.
There is only one segment that I can see that they *might* miss sales from. That would be the latecomers who put off getting a Wii because it wasn't HD. I don't believe these people actually exist. Nintendo games don't require high def graphics, so what would be the purpose of wanting to see "Mario's sweat rolling down his face?" I've seen people claim that they won't buy a Wii until it is HD, but I don't believe these people would buy a wii even it was HD. "Too Late" would be their mantra now.
As an investor, I'm not interested if Nintendo maintains their market share, even less do I care what some analyst thinks a company SHOULD do when what they HAVE been doing has been very profitable. What I am interested in is WHAT will they do and WHAT kind of sales are expected as a result. Patcher provides neither in any satisfactory way when it comes to Nintendo.
