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Seihyouken said:

Secondly, Kojima apparently decided to retcon the death of Dr. Madnar who died in the 1990 game Metal Gear 2 and provided absolutely no reason or explanation behind it.

All your other arguments work more or less but I don't fully agree about this one. You see, when MGS4 was released and people were discussing the game, this came up among other things. And what I saw every time was that the Madnar in MG2 is not the same as in MGS4. Also, a quick search for what's said about him in MGS4 seems to reveal he was said to be famous, which I doubt would be the case if he was actually the person who died in MG2.

Anyway, makes sense. But wasn't it stated somewhere that it actually is Raiden? (Not sure about this.) One way or another, I don't really care because I'm not sure if I'm going to like the way Kojima's come up with it.