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I imagine Nintendo discontinuing the DSi/XL in 2013/2014.

It's worth remembering that the GBA, which was considerably less succesful than the DS, kept on selling for a while after DS launch (sold about 21 million after DS launch, I think) and had another model released in that time frame.  If that is anything to go by, the DS will be selling for at least another 2-3 years.