I think it is certainly possible that the PS3 can come in 2nd, and I think this holiday (and therefore E3 reveals) will be the main determiniation.
I think if Microsoft announces a slim and price cut for this year, the 360 will stay ahead until their next console releases.
I think if they announce the slim and price cut, and Natal really takes off then they will probably stay permanently.
If Microsoft is not aggressive this holiday and makes up for some of the gap PS3 has eaten up since the slim, the PS3 will catch the 360 before Microsoft's next console release.
Some people seem to expet PS3 to sell almost as well as PS2 did after PS3 released. I don't think that will happen, but I do think it will do much better than the GC or Xbox did after their their succesors launched.
