I think PS3 can get to 2nd place, but it might not happen until mid 2013 at the current rate. Based on the success of Natal it could slow the process down to 2014 or later. At the rumored $150 price point though I think Natal will be a tough sell to new owners on top of a $200-$300 console.
Now if the next generation starts with the next Xbox console in 2012 does that mean 360 is officially in 2nd. Or if the PS3 goes on to complete the "10 year life cycle" and sells more after the 360 stops selling at retail does the PS3 officially take 2nd place?
Also does anyone think PS3 could still pass the Wii and take 1st place after 10 years on the market in late 2016 early 2017? I would think the Wii would have to stop selling for at least 3-4 years for that to happen and PS3 hits a $150 or $99 price point. Wii probably won't stop selling in 10 years so I doubt it will happen. Only reason I can think why it might stop if they released Wii HD at the same $250 price point and phased out the old one. Then technically Wii HD would be a new console and have to start over from zero sales. However it would be foolish not to continue to sell the original Wii at a $150 to $99 cost before stopping production when sales dry up.
