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Personally I estimate that a little over 50% of X360 owners are connected to Xbox Live, and these are the 20 or 23 million, but only a lil over half of these actually pay for Gold.

So maybe there are a little more than 10 million Gold members who pay $35 on averge per year (see Squill's estimation for the $35).

So I beleive the total revenue is no more than ~$400mill annually from xbox Live subscriptions.