NK Sinks SK Ship; Says Retaliation = War

[stof]

makingmusic476 said:

stof said:

But the U.S. troops in South Korea are there as a direct result of North Korea. Were the threat of North Korea to evaporate with unification, the role of the U.S. Military in the region would be re-examined by both the U.S. and Korea. 

Also, the notion that China would ally themselves with North Korea in a military conflict for the purpose of avoiding the United States is a bit counterproductive, considering that it would put them into direct confrontation with the U.S. army, as well as South Korea's, Japans, and numerous other U.N. nations.

There's also the fact that total trade between China and North Korea is worth about 2.7 billion, while trade between China South Korea is worth about 156.2 Billion.

It's been suggested before that one of the key reasons China supports North Korea is because it fears that the country's collapse would swell the already large numbers of refugees crossing the border in to China. It may be a good reason for support, but it would hardly at all be a reason to be drawn in to world war 3.

There is no way China would want to involve itself militarily in such a dispute.

Wouldn't North Korea's collapse only decrease the number of fleeing refugees in the long run?  Yeah, the initial devastation would cause quite a few people to try and get out, but once the ROK fully takes over, I doubt too many people would want to flee to China.

Sure it would mean a decrease in the long run, but that long run could take decades. In the short term, war or economic collapse could push MILLIONS of people across the border. That to China is a huge security threat. Even once the country was unified, economic conditions in the north would still be dire for some time, and the vaccum created could lead to organized crime taking route and exploiting the north Korea/China border.

As it is now, there are not just people escaping North Korea in to China, but smugglers going back and forth with goods, and North Korean operatives attempting to track down escaped citizens. I'm sure we can all agree China doesn't like North Korean operatives infiltrating their country, regardless of the purpose.