Will the Wii end 2008 with >= 50% market share?

[Sullla]

leo-j said:
I dont need to pray its impossible, unless they outsell the combined sales of the ps3 and X360 its not going to happen.

I think it's completely fair to argue that the Wii won't achieve 50% market share by the end of 2008. (Personally, I'd make a rough guess that the odds are somewhere around 50/50.) Saying that this is impossible, however, is a rather untenable claim. After all, the Wii outsold the 360 and PS3 combined in 33 different weeks in 2007. (There are only 52 weeks in a year, so that's WELL over half the calendar, and actually approaching 2/3.) It was also supply constrained in many markets, so at least in theory sales should be higher next year.

Here's the actual total numbers from VGChartz:

Sep. 08: Wii 252k, 360 (139k) + PS3 (97k) = 236k
Sep. 01: Wii 282k, 360 (152k) + PS3 (98k) = 250k
Aug. 25: Wii 258k, 360 (142k) + PS3 (91k) = 233k
Aug. 18: Wii 286k, 360 (112k) + PS3 (100k) = 212k
Aug. 11: Wii 270k, 360 (103k) + PS3 (98k) = 201k
Aug. 04: Wii 260k, 360 (68k) + PS3 (105k) = 173k
July 28: Wii 282k, 360 (70k) + PS3 (112k) = 182k
July 21: Wii 284k, 360 (66k) + PS3 (87k) = 153k
July 14: Wii 299k, 360 (70k) + PS3 (92k) = 142k
July 07: Wii 255k, 360 (73k) + PS3 (62k) = 135k

That's 10 straight weeks of the Wii outselling 360 + PS3 combined.

June 30: Wii 272k, 360 (83k) + PS3 (60k) = 143k
June 23: Wii 272k, 360 (80k) + PS3 (57k) = 137k
June 16: Wii 250k, 360 (88k) + PS3 (59k) = 147k
June 9: Wii 245k, 360 (85k) + PS3 (59k) = 144k
June 2: Wii 244k, 360 (69k) + PS3 (63k) = 132k
May 26: Wii 235k, 360 (68k) + PS3 (64k) = 132k
May 19: Wii 226k, 360 (79k) + PS3 (64k) = 143k
May 12: Wii 240k, 360 (89k) + PS3 (69k) = 158k
May 05: Wii 288k, 360 (96k) + PS3 (80k) = 176k
Apr. 28: Wii 295k, 360 (97k) + PS3 (77k) = 174k

Another 10 weeks in a row, as the Wii dominates the slow months of the year.

Apr. 21: Wii 232k, 360 (74k) + PS3 (82k) = 156k
Apr. 14: Wii 204k, 360 (77k) + PS3 (95k) = 172k

We have several weeks in March and early April where the PS3's European launch pushes the 360 + PS3 combo above Wii weekly sales. But before that launch, Wii dominance reigned:

Mar. 17: Wii 188k, 360 (90k) + PS3 (58k) = 148k
Mar. 10: Wii 176k, 360 (90k) + PS3 (78k) = 168k
Mar. 03: Wii 195k, 360 (98k) + PS3 (80k) = 178k
Feb. 24: Wii 228k, 360 (111k) + PS3 (49k) = 160k
Feb. 17: Wii 212k, 360 (116k) + PS3 (52k) = 168k
Feb. 10: Wii 216k, 360 (109k) + PS3 (66k) = 175k
Feb. 03: Wii 224k, 360 (109k) + PS3 (69k) = 178k
Jan. 27: Wii 244k, 360 (111k) + PS3 (73k) = 184k
Jan. 20: Wii 239k, 360 (114k) + PS3 (78k) = 192k
Jan. 13: Wii 246k, 360 (121k) + PS3 (88k) = 209k
Jan. 06: Wii 299k, 360 (144k) + PS3 (135k) = 279k

I did post this one before, so apologies for putting it up again. It was rather germane to this discussion though.