Does anyone think PS3 can realistically get to second place?

[jarrod]

makingmusic476 said:

jarrod said:
Can anyone name a 2nd/3rd place console that had a true 10 year cycle? 10 year plans are great PR (which Microsoft has espoused too btw), and lovely in theory, but there's a difference between that and it actually happening. Companies can't keep platforms on shelves through sheer force of will alone, it's quite literally the market that decides if a console sells for 10 years or or not.

We've also never seen a third place console that is likely to top 50 million when all is said and done.  Combine that with the idea that this generation will last a bit longer than usual (with new consoles not hitting til 2012-2013), and I could see the ps3 legging it out another three years on top of that.

I think the ps3 will end up being supported for pretty close to ten years, but for entirely different reasons than initially planned by Sony.

Fair point... though with 2012/2013 launches, this generation won't really be longer than usual for Sony or Nintendo.  And if we have everyone's next console on shelves by 2013 (plus 3DS and whatever PSP evolves into) I can't really see retail in general being all that eager to still stock PS3 and it's games for 3 years afterward.  Generational transitions always squeeze out the "losers" in that respect, that's why PS3 actually making that 10 year cycle (like it's 100m+ selling market dominating predecessors) comes off as pretty far from a sure thing.  People bring up the "10 year plan" like it's enshrined in stone, when it's very much an open question.