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supercat on 28 May 2010
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Smashchu2 said:
supercat said:
jarrod said:
Can anyone name a 2nd/3rd place console that had a true 10 year cycle? 10 year plans are great PR (which Microsoft has espoused too btw), and lovely in theory, but there's a difference between that and it actually happening. Companies can't keep platforms on shelves through sheer force of will alone, it's quite literally the market that decides if a console sells for 10 years or or not.


But now we have new developments which make a 10-year plan look quite attractive:

 

-slowdown of die reductions, moore's law is coming to a close, fast, and soon the die reductions won't be that much of a deal.  With chips staying the same size and not shrinking much, there is little need to move onto something more powerful. 

 

-The Ps2 had a 10-year cycle.

 

Your thoughts are brilliant, tell us more.

I think you misunderstand sales here.

The 10 year life cycle that Sony talks about is marketing smoke and mirrors. They said that becuase they thought that demand would be so high that the system would last 10 years and they were prepaired for that. The other two systems lasted 10 years because they were in high demand and still had games come out for them, but even then, they sold at very low ammounts and were drawfed by their newer versions. The PS3 can not have a 10 year life cycle becuase they system isn't selling well enough now. Consoles are a momentum based market, meaning they are defined early on. Sony has not got the steam to keep the system appealing for 10 years.

Rule #1 of business. The customer runs your business. A 10 year life cycle is only possible if customers buy your system for 10 years. The systems that will have a 10 year life cycle are the Wii and the DS.

 

If it really matters I think that the 360 will be passed up and place third by sometime next year, but that the 360 will also be around 10 years.  If you want to make the point that the 10 year plan is all PR, great and I have to agree but it is also true.  So I guess it depends on which way you look at it.