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Mario Kart sold 7.7mil in 2009 alone, so I expect around that much for the next 12 months of NSMB Wii. Your Mario Kart or Wii Fit comparisons (week 27-79) don't work, because it includes their first holiday period (minus Wii Fit in Japan), which NSMB Wii already saw in its first 2 months.

Since it took over a year for the first SMG to reach 7 million, and I see SMG2 selling less than the first:


NSMB Wii > SMG > SMG2.