theprof00 said:
Smashchu2 said:
theprof00 said:
Smashchu2 said:
By the numbers, PS3 was behind the 360 by 5 million units as of last week (using these numbers too becuase they are easier :P). Here is the break down of how many more they would have to sell a week to beat the 360.
| Years |
# sold per week (over 360 sales) |
| 1 |
96,153.87 |
| 2 |
48,076.92 |
| 3 |
32,051.28 |
| 4 |
24,038.46 |
| 5 |
19,230.76
|
As you can see, it would have to sell a lot more then it usually does to pull these. It's doable I guess, but the system are usually so close that it would take 3-5 years to do this not including if the 360 beats the PS3 on any week. This is all based on the assumption that PS3 outsells the 360 every week for x number of years.
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not counting the 1.3M ps3 outsold 360 last xmas.
were ps3 to do the same this year, which it is trending towards,
it would take
1 year : 66k per week
2 year : 33k per week
3 year : 22k per week
The most sony can ask for is a +2M gap close this christmas, taking the lead by xmas 2011, during which they will have both reached 60M or whatever.
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Last year, the system has a good price drop and a new model. I doubt it will be the same as this year, esspecially as we are seeing decling sales. Where did you get those numbers though?
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We are seeing a decline in both consoles sales, but 360 is dropping faster to the point where, despite the drop from last years xmas, it will still be that gap. Additionally, Sony increased its projections to 15M, whereas 360s was around 10M + extra three months IIRC.
I used the last ten weeks of sales to determine the gap.
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The numbers you gave are incorrect. If it sells 66k over the 360 for a year, then it would be at 3,432,000. If you were to include the Christmas season (which we'll say is 6 weeks out of the year) , then it would need to sell 1,964,000 at Chrismas(5,000,000-3,036,000). I think your numbers are a little low.
Two assumptions people are making that I think are incorrect
- That the PS3 will sell with the same numbers or higher next Christmas. Last Christmas, the system had a price cut and a new model. Sales should have been up. It is most likely going to go down.
- GT5 will be a system seller. As far as I have seen, there have been no system sellers on the PS3 (there was a study posted here on VGChartz about it, check out the news section). It's doubtful this game will boost hardware sales, or at least not the numbers some people are saying.
