Will the Wii end 2008 with >= 50% market share?

[HappySqurriel]

revolutions said:
24 + 19 = 43 Wii
10 + 17.5 = 27.5 X360
12.5 + 8.5 = 21 PS3

43m vs 48.5m = damn close but the Wii will be under 50% marketshare.

I just wonder how you choose your numbers ...

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 08th Jan 2006 to 31st Dec 2006:

Console	X360
Total	6,776,268

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 07th Jan 2007 to 16th Dec 2007:

Console	Wii	PS3	X360
Total	13,676,952	6,235,155	6,769,249

 

Two years in a row the XBox 360 has averaged 7 Million units of hardware. I think it is fair to expect that the PS3 and XBox 360 will sell 8 Million units of hardware each in 2008 which means that we will have:

16 Million (end of 2007) + 8 Million (2008) = 24 Million XBox 360 systems sold
8.5 Million (end of 2007) + 8 Million (2008) = 16.5 Million PS3 systems sold
24.5 Million (end of 2007) + 16 Million (2008) = 40.5 Million combined systems

The Wii will have sold 15+ Million systems in 2007 whilst being heavily supply limited ... We can't say for sure but it could sell more than 21 Million pieces of hardware in 2008 and pass the XBox 360 and PS3 combined