I think so. If the gap has been closing as steady as it is. Since it's been out of the upper crusts' price range for a while, and is now affordable within the average person's paycheck. The rest of the world was waiting on it too.
Now will it get to second place in the US market? I don't think so, personally. The head start is little too broad, and MS is pretty territorial about this market. Plus, the gaming market is split between the casual and the hardcore right now. Sony and MS fighting the battleground on the hardcore front, Nintendo with the casuals in one broad sweep. With these two fighting for the same audience, there's nothing they can really do more at this point to one up each other, that wouldn't involve suicidal price drops at least. A run at motion controls isn't going to cut it. They make expensive systems even that more expensive, and may not have the longevity among the current userbase they think it would. As far the casuals, well, they have a Wii already.
But, yes. I think the gap will close. Unless Natal truly ends up being a miraculous piece of tech that everyone's going to want, it could end up going in MS's favor. But I can't make that call yet.
