2007 is now settled - will 2008 be any different?

[Steve 3.2]

As I said in The Source's post about 2008:

"2008 will be completely about momentum.

To kick things off, there will be no new consoles or major redesigns next year. Yes, the PS2 gets lighter and MS and Sony will continue to reduce the costs for their respective consoles. And yes, we may see some new skus from all the major players, especially Nintendo with a DVD playing Wii. But in the end there will be nothing from a design standpoint that will drive sales. So what will?

First and foremost, the games. There are some heavy hitters in 2008. A few known and many unknowns. It's a given that Nintendo will continue to milk their franchises (SSB, Mario Kart, etc.) and also their non-games (Wii Fit, Music, etc.). And both the 360 and PS3 will get GTA IV. Gears of War 2 should be ready by the end of the year and hopefully Konami can deliver MGS4. If you thought 2007 was great, you ain't seen nothing yet!

And then we have the price cuts. It's not an if, but a when and how much for all the players in 2008. Nintendo cannot price its machine more than a base 360. And while it may hurt the bottom line a bit, both MS and Sony need to continue to push the price of entry down on their respective machines. This is especially important for the PS3 as it costs the most right now even though it may also provide the greatest value with the included Blu-ray player.

And the wild card is supply. When will the Wii shortages stop in the US? The public has put up with Nintendo's excuses for over a year now. It's time for them to either shape up or the public will go elsewhere."

I'm not quite ready to make a full prediction for next year, but overall I expect things to continue to get better for most of the systems out there. On the handheld front the DS continues to do well but the momentum shifts from Japan to the America and Others to pick up for the slack. The PSP continues to do better in 2008 than it did in 2007 but it won't catch up to the DS juggernaut. The 360, PS3 and Wii will all have their best year yet in 2008. It's just a matter of how good and will it create any differences on who leads in each market. In the Americas, the Wii should overtake the 360 sometime in 2008 but the PS3 will remain in 3rd place. In Japan, the Wii will continue to remain in first but it won't outsell the PS3 regularly like it did in 2007. The 360 will pick up slightly, but still remain a non-event in Japan. Europe will see a shift with the Wii continuing to lead but the PS3 keeping up and overtaking the 360.