first they probably are going to keep it around like the PS2 is kept around, I mean when was the last big exclusive for the PS2 the highest selling console ever. Of course they want you to think that they are not going to launch a new console, so people keep buying consoles and games they aren't Nintendo the announcement that they are preping a new console for late 2011 or mid 2012 would probably kill sales compleatly. If Natal doesn't go really big and maybe even if it does Microsoft will have a new console ready to announce as soon as E3 2011.
Lets face it the 360 is loosing momentum and Natal is the last real hope, I know Reach and a bunch of other sequels are coming but they aren't system sellers Fable 3 is not going to move a lot of consoles, Gears of war 3 and reach may pull some people back in that sold or didn't get their consoles repaired but not bring in a lot of new gamers. Natal might and there will be a strong push in marketing and games but depending on content and price it could be lucky to move 10 million units in a year. and 10 million is not a very viable userbase for developers especially considering that apparently almost all 3rd parties are developing Natal games so the market will be saturated in mostly shovleware so most titles won't sell very well and publishers might not want to support it for long. And if it is a massive success (I hope it is) Microsoft could be using it as a test and will launch a backwards compatible console with Natal as standard anyway.
so in short there will probably be a new Microsoft console by 2013 (especially if Nintendo launches one) but if it soes the 360 will stick around much like the ps2 is now except probably with less support.
well that was a lot longer than I expected.
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