Even if GTA IV/MGS4 IV/Little Big Planet/Devil May Cry 4/ etc coincided in Jan-Mar with another $100 price cut, I have difficulty seeing Sony selling 11 million PS3s in their fiscal year (Apr 1 2007 - Marc 31 2008)
Sales are ~400k per week.
Say PS3 hits 8.0 million by Dec 30, 2007.
They'll have 13 weeks to sell 5.2 million more units this fiscal year (because by March 31, 2007 Sony had already sold 2.8 million PS3s)
If sales are 400k/week during the peak weeks of the year, then its hard to imagine them topping 200k week - on average in the 13 weeks of Jan-March 2008.
8.00 + (.2)(13) = 10.6 million LTD for PS3 by 4/1/2008. Shipments are probably going to hit 12-13 million, possibly higher, depending on GTAIV's exact release, further price cuts, etc. Again, taking out what Sony sold pre Apr 2007, then Sony will have sold 7.8 million PS3s - at best - by April 1 2008, and shipped 9-10 million PS3s over the period. A $150 price drop, higher than expected Japanese sales, etc, would be necessry to hit 11 million shipped even in a best case scenario.
200k may not sound like much per week, but sales for January 1 2007 to April 1 2007 averaged only 120k per week for PS3 - even with the nearly 600k Euro-launch aided week (March 25)
If GTAIV launched without a price cut, sales would probably be more like 140k to 180k per week for Jan-Mar.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
