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They will both probably have some 'tricks' up their sleeves. (pricecut/upgrade/exclusives)

The 15 million for Sony is somewhat bold but since they made it to 13 this year, they have earned some credit with their estimations.

I don't think the xbox sales will stay that far behind this year (both hoping to hit the jackpot with the motion thingy). If Sony can keep its' mojo up it will take m probably another half/full year to overcome the xbox in sales.