PS3 to surpass X360 in HW sales by March 2011

[Alby_da_Wolf]

kowenicki said:

Perhaps.... if they stuff the channels!!

Based on VGC number as at end of April 2010.

For PS3 to overtake 360, PS3 will need to outsell 360 by:
634,553	per month to catch it by Jan '11		146,435	per week, on average every week.
253,821	per month to catch it by Jan '12		58,574	per week, on average every week.
158,638	per month to catch it by Jan '13		36,609	per week, on average every week.
115,373	per month to catch it by Jan '14		26,625	per week, on average every week.
Current rate:	284,030	per month on average for the last 12 months.	1.49	years to catch at this rate	December-11
	351,216	per month on average for the last 6 months.	1.20	years to catch at this rate	September-11
	205,429	per month on average for the last 3 months.	2.06	years to catch at this rate	July-12

The average you calculated on the past 12 months is IMVHO the best to use as base for predictions, as it includes every period of the year, slumps, boosts, etc, with their effects on gaps (the average on the last 3 months is biased down by after Easter slump, the one on the last 6 is biased up by Xmas). So, if PS3 manages to stay ahead after both Sony and MS will have played their best cards, a period of some months centered around Dec 2011 could be a first rough guess.