gamelover2000 said:
Viper1 said:
Kasz216 said:
a few things... about attach rate to help you guys out.
A) attach ratio pretty much always goes up. PS2 has such a huge attach ratio because... well duh... nobody buys PS2's anymore. A bunch of people are still buying PS2 games though. 360 being out a year longer is a BIG help because well... the 360 has way more "average months" of ownership. Which months of ownership/games bought has it's own flaws but is better then attach rate... though isn't really used anywhere.
B) Systems with lower sales often have higher attach rates. Really the PS3's floundering sales are confusing.
C) Attach rates also tends to go up when there is a large upswing in console sales. Usually someone buys 2-3 games with a system while the average person only buys 1 game every few months. Hence the PS3's attach rate is climbing faster because of the upswing in console ownership. This may or may not level off depending on how sales go.
D) Wii comes with Wii Sports. Which isn't counted. Really all things considered it's doing quite well.
E) There numbers appear to have no source. |
This.
Most people fail to grasp that fact that time is a key factor in attach rate because attach rate is a cumulative element and not a snap shot of a single moment.
I prefer to use a formula that includes time as a variable. (total software / total consoles) / number of months of availability. This gives a more accurate and comporable picture. Though it does have the flaw of staggered launches such as the PS3 but applying the formula to the different territories individually first solves that.
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fail math..
if a console has a attach ratio of 7.5 and alot of new owners buy a console and 2-3 games with it and the previous owners don't buy any additional games.. attach rates go down..
seriously?
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As a console gets older, the attach rate rises. This is not something you can debate, it occurs.
As a first order approximation, we assume that hardware sales rate is constant and that the software sales rate is proportional to the userbase.
So when a console has a userbase of x units, it's install base is increasing at a rate of y and it is having a rate of software sales of z, this it's attach ratio will tend towards z/y
When the same console has a userbase of 2 * x units, it's install base is increasing at a rate of y and it is having a rate of software sales of 2 * z, thus its attach ratio is tending towards 2*z/y
Now, as i said before, this is an approximation, the hardware sales rate of console's tend to increase up until about the console's 3rd birthday, then they decrease. So before the 3rd birthday, the attach ratio is going to increase slower than my data indicated, and after it will increase faster. It is also not true that a console with twice the userbase will have twice the amount of sales - it so happens that the more core users buy early, while the less core users wait until price cuts, thus the increase will be slower than the above would indicate.
