ironman said:
I'm not arguing that fact, but I highlighted the part that was completely wrong. |
In what way is that wrong... the X360 had people buying games before the PS3 was out. Gamers naturally buy games as they own their console for longer and the average X360 owner has had their console for longer than the average PS3 owner.
| johnsobas said: it's true the 1 year head start helps, but lets be honest we're talking about only a 6 million headstart on a system that has sold 40 million now. All that means is an extra 6 million people had the console for an extra 1 year or less depending on when they bought it, that's the advantage of the head start. It should be taken into consideration but it's clearly not enough to overtake the 360's advantage yet and it becomes less significant of a factor as time goes on. |
Well it's not quite as simple as that when comparing to the PS3, the X360 was also selling more hardware than PS3 after both had launched compared to now, so the average amount of time the X360 owner has owned their console than the PS3 owner is bumped up by more than was gained from the actual headstart.
Yes the advantage decreases the longer they are both out, but it is not insubstantial at the moment... if both consoles sold exactly the same number of units from PS3 launch till now, and exactly the same number of games per user, the X360 would have 6 million extra consoles, but in addition to the software sold before PS3 launch it has those extra 6 million users buying games each year.
Keeping similar figures to reality, but simplifying to help my math:
From PS3 launch both consoles sold 10 million per year for 3 years, and sold 5 games per user per year. The X360 sold 5 million in the year before PS3 launch and they all bought 5 games per user per year.
So both systems have exactly the same attach rate
360 sold 6+10+10+10 = 35 million units
it sold in years 1-4:
1. 5*5 = 25 million
2. 5*15 = 75 million
3. 5*25 = 125 million
4. 5*35 = 175 million
Total = 400 million
PS3 sold 10+10+10 = 30 million units
it sold in years 1-3:
1. 5*10 = 50 million
2. 5*20 = 100 million
3. 5*30 = 150 million
Total = 300 million
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The attach rate of the consoles was the same, the attach ratios at the end of it are:
X360 - 11.43 games per system
PS3 - 10 games per system
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The years head start with 5 million users makes nearly 1.5 difference to the ratio... and that's in this simplistic scenario, more realistically the X360 had more than a 5 million/1 year head start (mostly due to late PAL PS3 launch) ... all of this pushes the amount of time the X360 user has had their console up more compared to PS3.
| johnsobas said: it's true the 1 year head start helps, but lets be honest we're talking about only a 6 million headstart on a system that has sold 40 million now. All that means is an extra 6 million people had the console for an extra 1 year or less depending on when they bought it, that's the advantage of the head start. It should be taken into consideration but it's clearly not enough to overtake the 360's advantage yet and it becomes less significant of a factor as time goes on. |
