PS3 to surpass X360 in HW sales by March 2011

[Squilliam]

Netyaroze said:

But the problem is Europe and Japan just dont like Xbox as much as PS3 (except Uk). Sales there are shrinking. And if USA will peak for Xbox massively and Europe and Japan are at 2009 level then Xbox STILL will sell less then PS3. its just highly unlikely that Xbox can turn around the wheel.

The nearer PS3 get to 360 the more are 360 fans defending Xbox status.


I wonder when Xbox fans will admit that its over. Maybe after gap shrunk to 3 Million ?

They will probably never admit its over. Even if the PS3 passes the Xbox 360 it would have taken at least 4 to 5 years to achieve that. Many people are well past caring. It still doesn't stop the PS3 from being one of the biggest failures in the history of game consoles, probably only bested by Atari.

Yeah Xbox is able of good sales. But somehow people dont realize peak year Xbox 11 Mio Peak year PS3 13 Million until now. Even if PS3 peaked at 13 Million and it will sell every year less and less from now on. It would still beat Xbox360. If natal doesnt change everything its over. It has been over a long time for me since i knew if everything follows the rules it always do PS3 will catch Xbox360 sooner or later.

The scenarios for Xbox to win the race are not very likely: 

If PS3 has a mayor decline after September 2010 and will sell just under 13 Million lets say 12.5 Million and Xbox360 will be rescued through Natal and it will be mayor hit. So that Xbox360 will peak 2 years after its first peak. (Which hasnt happened before atleast idk any example for it). This would be the perfect scenario for Xbox. All other realistic scenarios point towards PS3. Xbox has to outsell its peak than ks to natal ny 1.5-2 Million units until march that would mean a mayor turnaround in Japan for Xbox360 (PS3 like sales) and exceed European PS3 sales and top USA sales in its best times and PS3 would have to sell  on 2008 level. But this wont happen never ever. Japan is totally lost for MS and this makes sure that the gap will diminish EU and USA could be the same for Xbox and PS3 but still they would loose because of Japan.

Xbox 360 YTD 2008: 2,116,359

Xbox 360 YTD 2010: 2,505,832

Xbox 360 total 2008: 10,885,116

The Xbox 360s sales are already higher than their peak years sales YTD. Since the majority of the events which would increase the Xbox 360s overall sales coincide with Q4 2010. The only important information is not the relative sales in 2010 but the rate of sales difference during the last 10 weeks of 2010 and going into 2011. We already know that the PS3 has sold extremely well at the start of the year, but the most important difference is always whether Xbox 360 > PS3 or vice versa.

I don't think you can count on Japan as being as decisive this year given the fact that Final Fantasy has already released and they will be getting one or two new handhelds. That leaves the U.S. which tips the scales at the end of the year with a slim majority of sales expected to fall in the Americas region.

Btw: We don't have official projected Xbox 360 sales do we? If the PS3 can do a 4th year peak as a third place console then thats unprecedented enough to say that the Xbox 360 could do a 5th year peak given its sales have remained relatively steady since release.

Natal is the only wildcard. But the effect of it has to he gigantic and tbh I really think everyone overestimates it. In my eyes Slim would have a far bigger effect on the Sales of Xbox360.

No it doesn't. A slim console would increase sales just off the novelty alone.

The Natal accessory only has to increase the base sales by a few million over a relatively short space of time to make a decisive impact. Remember the week after E3 last year the Xbox 360 got an increase of 20-30k sales just off the hype from Natal alone. Unlike Move the Natal interface has greater potential because it speaks to markets which are untapped by Nintendo and Sony probably won't even ask a question of them with their even more expensive Move controller that seeks to emulate the Wii.