Sales bumps for sequels will be equal on both systems.
I think once Natal releases, there will be no more Elite standalone systems. MS has said Natal is like a "new" console release, so why sell your old consoles without the addon?
Selling Arcades makes perfect sense tho (banned consoles, RRoD, accidental death, etc). I doubt we will see an Arcade Bundle with Natal.
The biggest question for the 360 is Natal. Will it sell new consoles or just sell a lot of accessories? It will be successful to the current 360 crowd, but will it dominate new customers? I really do not know.
The biggest question for Sony is exclusives. Can they make up the difference? It will really come down to the Americas if Sony is to overtake the 360 by next March.
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