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nightsurge on 14 May 2010
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MARCUSDJACKSON said:
nightsurge said:

Halo 3 moved over 140k consoles in just the first 3 weeks after it launched.

And again you really are out of the loop aren't you?  The 360 didn't get a cut last year, and the redesigned 360 has leaked mobo photos, Steve Balmer leaked info, memory card removal and then flash drive support came out, etc.  It's pretty clearly getting a redesign.

Also, only a $50 cut for a 360 yet you fully support the notion that the PS3 is going to afford another $50-$100 cut this year?  That's pretty rich.  The PS3 automatically costs ~$80-100 more than a 360 to produce because of bluetooth, blu-ray, and wi-fi.  And yet they are selling for the SAME PRICE!  Once the redesign is done, the 360 could slash $100 off without even trying.  Then bundle in Natal for just a $50 increase.  The PS3 on the other hand, even if it gets a $50 cut this year, will cost $100 to bundle in Move with the console (if they do the full move which is controller + sub controller + eye + game).  They may leave out the subcontroller and bundle it for just $80 more.  Either way, prices this fall will be this:

 

These are my predictions.  Feel free to quote me on this:

Arcade 360 Slim - $149 or $99 (with Natal - $149 or 199)

Elite 360 Slim - $199 or $149 (with Natal - $199 or $249)

PS3 base model - $249 or $299 if no price cut (with Move - $329 or $349)

PS3 larger HDD model - $299 or $349 if no price cut (with Move - $379 or $399)

Wii - $149

i think some of those price points would spell doom for the agenda and bottomline for the big three! Microsoft is already lossing money on the arcade (read it somewhere but im not debating it/its probably not true). i see wii doing more of a $279.99 if they do a price cut at all. a slim 360 is likely but i don't think so. and a larger hdd PS3 would be stupid for sony. god i hope they don't.

a PS3 better not cost $329-$349-$379-$399 if they want sells to keep improving. that would just be going backwards in price, and would not make mutch sence. if they want to sell move! it should be priced lower then $149 if they want gamers that already have the console to buy move, and it shouldn't increase the price of a PS3 if they want to get those casual gamers.

and as far as im consernd. when it comes to move! if it doesn't have two motion controles and a sub controler. then its not worth buying. most of the games they've showed off needed two move controlers so it would make no sence to not include two motion controlers.

Just to clarify a few things.  I also don't think the Arcade 360 is losing any money. Probably at the break even/small profit range.  I believe my price points farthest left (in non-bundled) and farthest right (if bundled) are the more likely ones.

Also, when I say PS3 base model/larger HDD model I simply mean what they have now.  The 120gb is the base, the 250gb is the larger.  I figure they may update HDD size to 250gb and 320/500gb and since they don't have names for the SKU that was the easiest way to describe it.

As to your last point, that's why I see Move and this entire 15 million projection for next fiscal year to be highly overestimated and a huge problem for Sony.  Their bundles won't even be enough to play every game.  If they do include 2 controllers + sub controller that will drastically increase the price of the bundles.  They need to bundle the controllers with the console if they want to maximize install base, but if they do that their prices will be quite a bit higher looking.

It seems like an awful catch-22 that Sony is in.  They can choose to either take a huge loss per console sold and still bundle, or choose to sell the controllers separate to keep the initial console purchase cheap but hurt the install base of the new controllers by quite a bit, too.