@TheSource:
A cut to $250 for the entry level model could be enough to price $300 the entry level Move bundle. This way, and doing the cut as late as possible before Xmas 2010, to let the process shrink and its refinement reduce costs just another little bit before cutting, Sony would have a very little loss on entry level SKUs, while it could earn a little on premium ones.
Sales aren't bad and Sony is going to release enough novelties to support them, so, IMVHO, Sony just needs a small cut, an adjustment to avoid Move bundles being too expensive.
So a projection of shipping 15M should be coherent with a mild price cut and also the necessity of increasing manufacturing capacity in a prudent way, without rushing it.
Also, as the biggest novelties are likely to be announced for Autumn and Xmas 2010, sales before will suffer at least a little and this should lower the yearly average that we could expect with a huge Xmas.
So yeah, 15M looks good, anything more will be welcome for Sony.
OTOH, 18M only for Wii would mean that Move and Natal will hurt it at least a little (but also that last huge Xmas pushed some FY 2011 sales forward too). Or maybe that people will find Vitality quite meh and not enough to counter Sony and MS. Or that Nintendo will concentrate on 3DS... But this would make Pachter's predictions right again!!! 
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