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There's no way they're making 15 million without a $50 price cut, at the very least.

Sure, they're 30-40% YoY now, but in absolute numbers that isn't a big deal. According to VGC:

April - Sept 09: ~3.7 mil
Oct 09 - March 10: ~9.6mil

It means they need to not only stay 40% up YoY until September, but remain flat from last year's slim / $100 price cut.