Sony Projecting 15m PS3s for FY 3/2011, 35.7m PS3s Shipped LTD

[binary solo]

TheSource said:

Sony's info is out folks. My take is here http://news.vgchartz.com/news.php?id=80014

                  Wii           X360        PS3

FY 3/ 06'     N/A           3.2m        N/A

FY 3/ 07'     5.84m      7.7m       3.51m

FY 3 / 08'    18.61m    8.1m        9.12m

FY 3/ 09'     25.95m     11.2m     10.06m

FY 3/ 10'     20.53m     10.0m     13.0m

FY 3 / 11'   18m E           ??         15.0m E

 

Microsoft's fiscal years end in June and they don't issue forecasts...but can't imagine they expect to ship something other than ~8-12m systems for the period ending March 2011

My guess is Sony cuts price to $250 or $200 in Fall 2010 and this is the peak PS3 year for hw, and a flat / slightly up year for sw. Thoughts?

 

According to some calculations I did a while back Sony's average annual price alteration for PS3 is $75. Given they went for $100 last year I'm picking if there is a price cut it will be $50.

But does a projected 15M necessitate a price cut? Have you projected PS3's YoY lead over 2009 come October?

*runs off to do a quick calculation*

PS3 is running at 137% of 2009 to date. Conservatively I could guess that by the end of September PS3 will be running at 130% of 2009. This would give PS3 a lead of 1.8 million heading into 2009's Slim launch at which point it will almost certainly fall behind 2009 on a WoW basis. That pretty much means without something to give it 2009-like Q4 sales 15M is a pretty tall order.

If it gets to Sept holding at 137% ahead it's going to be 2.1 million ahead. Again meaning it needs to equal 2009's Q4 to make 15 million.

Sony might be pinning its hopes on Move, GT5, LBP2 and whatever else it has yet to reveal to make it to 15M without a price drop. But nothing shifts hardware like a price cut. At this point I reckon only GT5 is a HW pusher and it won't push enough on its own to have PS3 repeat Q4 '09.

Then again I think a $50 price cut might make 15 million look a tad conservative if it wasn't for the fact that there will be Move bundles that bring the price back up to $300 or even more. A $100 price cut would make Q4 2009 look like a slow year, and 15M look like a 6 month estimate rather than a full year estimate (OK not quite that good).

I think a $499 PS3 in New Zealand would fly off the shelves. $450 would be even better, though not so likely.