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There is really no reason for Natal to cost 100 bucks nor is there incentive for MS to charge it at that price when they want mass adoption.  The difference with Natal then with MS other add on is that MS doesn't seek mass adoption of those devices.  We already pretty much have a understand of all the hardware pieces for Natal and they are cheap.  MS could sell the device for 50 bucks and still receive a small profit.  Since MS took out the hardware chip within Natal, the 50 dollar prices is even more obtainable.

 

Personally I believe Natal will sell for 59.99 come bundled with that breakout game and some demos